Unemployment fee rises, market loosens

New ABS knowledge painted a posh image of the job market in November, with usually excellent news on employment regardless of slight rise in unemployment.

The unemployment fee climbed to three.9% in November (seasonally adjusted), up from 3.8% in October.

This represents a 0.1% enhance, pushed by an increase of 19,000 within the variety of unemployed individuals, regardless of a powerful 61,000 enhance in total employment.

Bjorn Jarvis (pictured above), head of labour statistics on the ABS, famous the continued sturdy employment progress however highlighted the concurrent rise in unemployment.

“This mixture pushed the participation fee to a brand new excessive of 67.2%, whereas the employment-to-population ratio reached a file 64.6%.”

Jarvis emphasised the persistence of excessive employment ranges all through 2023, with the ratio fluctuating between 64.4% and 64.6% since February.

Equally, participation charges remained elevated, with the variety of unemployed individuals growing by 81,000 over the previous 12 months. Nonetheless, he identified that each unemployment measures stay considerably beneath pre-pandemic ranges.

Employment and hours labored

Whereas employment continued to climb in November (0.4%), hours labored noticed a extra modest enhance of lower than 0.1%. Jarvis attributed this to a slowdown in hours progress noticed over the previous six months, bringing the overall variety of hours labored again to Could 2023 ranges.

He acknowledged the sturdy progress skilled in late 2022 and early 2023 however emphasised the latest narrowing hole between employment and hours progress, suggesting a possible easing of the tight labour market.

Underemployment and underutilisation

Coinciding with the slowdown in hours labored, the underemployment fee rose 0.2 share factors to six.5% in November.

This represents a 0.7% enhance from November 2022 however stays 2.2% decrease than pre-pandemic ranges. The underutilisation fee, encompassing each unemployment and underemployment, additionally rose 0.3% to 10.4%.

Underlying pattern knowledge

Development knowledge revealed a secure image, with the pattern unemployment fee holding regular at 3.8%. Each employment (0.2%) and hours labored (-0.1%) exhibited modest pattern progress, whereas the employment-to-population ratio and participation fee remained at 64.6% and 67.1%, respectively.

The underemployment and underutilisation charges additionally held agency at 6.4% and 10.2%.

“In pattern phrases, lots of the key indicators nonetheless level to a decent labour market. Nonetheless, the growing unemployment fee since November 2022, together with the rising underemployment fee and slowdown in hours progress, could counsel that the labour market is beginning to sluggish,” Jarvis mentioned.

What do you consider the newest unemployment knowledge? Remark beneath.