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At present’s Compound and Buddies is delivered to you by Kraneshares:
See right here for extra info on the KFA Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Technique ETF ($KMLM)
On in the present day’s present, we talk about:
Hear right here:
Charts:
Tweets:
US monetary circumstances are probably the most accommodative they have been because the Fed began mountain climbing charges final 12 months, in response to the Bloomberg US Monetary Situations index. pic.twitter.com/JKRcATr7Gv
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) December 13, 2023
Merchants at the moment are pricing in 130bp of Fed charge cuts by the tip of 2024. pic.twitter.com/wAzMs6P3jF
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) December 13, 2023
With in the present day’s strikes the quick charge market stays about 90bps decrease than the Fed’s dots in Dec ‘24.
Certain the Fed shifted to be extra dovish, however pricing transfer in parallel means both the market thinks the Fed can be ~3x as dovish with the identical knowledge or progress will collapse. pic.twitter.com/ecArUD5owf
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) December 14, 2023
‘24 can be an essential take a look at of the Fed’s credibility given their coverage indications vs market pricing.
Whereas their strikes yesterday clearly signaled a extra dovish response operate – with simpler coverage for roughly the identical knowledge – the quick charge market says all-in on easing. pic.twitter.com/1qbZ9zicZe
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) December 14, 2023
If the Fed goes to extra structurally go gentle on their inflation mandate, it is a time to promote lengthy bonds not purchase them.
Fed’s personal dots present no intention to convey core PCE right down to at or beneath 2% til ’26 even underneath sturdy financial circumstances (UE charge secure at 4.1% through ’26): pic.twitter.com/2YdCriuAER
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) December 14, 2023
The % of latest ETF launches which might be actively managed has reached a document 80%, which is wild. Lively ETFs additionally taking in 1 / 4 of the flows. Large BYOA wave commencing. High 5 ETF chart of 12 months IMO from @SirYappityyapp pic.twitter.com/mQm2z96k3L
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) December 11, 2023
Any hedge fund beta that may be became an ETF can be became an ETF.
At which level, establishments should ask, “why am I paying hedge fund charges for this? Why do I need one thing that is much less liquid?”
I am betting this development accelerates. pic.twitter.com/eopDacanUc
— Corey Hoffstein 🏴☠️ (@choffstein) November 10, 2023
The nice deposit flight threat of 2023… did not materialize regardless of excessive charges. Deposits have been fairly secure / up for months now.
And earlier than I hear, “however giant time deposits are surging,” acknowledge that the 400bln improve since SVB is *simply ~2%* of the deposit base. pic.twitter.com/WQwoVfOs7k
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) December 9, 2023
A typical q I get today is when the pile of money added this 12 months may head for inventory and crypto markets
The reply: (probably) after we get previous recession worries
Since 1974, money ranges have began declining a median of 10 months after the primary charge minimize pic.twitter.com/au026I7B1T
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) December 11, 2023
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