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Within the 12 months after the 2008 elections, the S&P 500 declined by 37%. After the 2000 presidential election, it recorded an roughly 13% adverse return. Previous to 2000, the S&P 500 went down 7.8% within the 12 months following the 1960 presidential election, which noticed John F. Kennedy take the presidency for the Democrats.
It additionally dipped 5.5% after Harry Truman and the Democrats secured a come-from-behind victory in 1948; declined by 10.7% after the 1940 Democratic triumph led by Franklin D. Roosevelt, when World Warfare II was brewing; and slumped 11.9% after FDR’s first presidential win in 1932, which coincided with the Nice Despair.
“We anticipate an uptick out there following a brand new administration coming in, or the re-election of the present administration,” Marcus says. “It would not make a distinction if the Republicans or Democrats return in subsequent November; we do predict that the US market will swing upwards.”
In keeping with Marcus, many cross-border shoppers’ portfolios at Raymond James embrace dually listed shares, with each US-based firms and Canada-based firms. As such, it’s essential for them to think about the funding implications of occasions in each markets.
“If shoppers have been to name us and say ‘Is President Biden going to be re-elected or not? Are the Republicans going to take over? Ought to we be liquidating our portfolio?’ then I can inform them what’s occurred traditionally,” Marcus says.
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